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How Ethiopia’s Quarrel With Somalia Could Destabilise Horn of Africa

Somalis march against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal along KM4 street in Mogadishu, Somalia January 11, 2024. REUTERS/Feisal Omar/File Photo

Ethiopia’s deal to lease a port in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland has infuriated the government in Mogadishu and prompted concern it will further destabilise the Horn of Africa region.

Under a memorandum of understanding signed on Jan 1, landlocked Ethiopia would lease 20 km (12 miles) around Somaliland’s port of Berbera for 50 years, in exchange for stakes in Ethiopian state-run companies and possible recognition as an independent nation.

Somalia has responded by calling the deal an act of aggression and says it will block it. Ethiopia says it is merely striking a commercial arrangement to address a need for access to the sea.

Ethiopia, Africa’s second most-populous country with 120 million people, depends for more than 90% of its trade on ports in neighbouring Djibouti, costing it more than $1.5 billion a year in fees.

In a speech in October, as Abiy publicly made the case for Ethiopia to gain sea access, he cited an 19th-century Ethiopian general, who had called the Red Sea the country’s “natural boundary.”

Ethiopia lost sea access in the early 1990s when its then-province Eritrea seceded following a three-decade war. Abiy’s drive to reclaim it is seen as enjoying wide political support.

The prime minister also wants a sea base for Ethiopia’s navy, which has been rebuilt in recent years but is currently limited to conducting training exercises on an inland lake.

The Mogadishu government considers Somaliland an integral part of Somalia even though it enjoys effective autonomy.

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